Pedro Nuno Santos’ return to the political scene is marked by a familiar stance, reinforcing the idea that certain goals are practically impossible while reiterating that he has no electoral calculations. Despite this, he echoes President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s argument since May, stating it is very important to avoid elections.
Santos assures that the Socialist Party (PS) will remain engaged, stressing that the party is “available to give an opportunity to those who want to govern Portugal,” ensuring the viability of the Budget and avoiding early elections. However, he makes it clear that this support comes with a condition: But not at any price.
Evolving PS Stance on Cooperation and Budget Viability
The PS’s stance on cooperation has evolved over time. Initially deemed practically impossible, their position shifted from very difficult to showing openness. It progressed further, becoming surmountable, and later transformed into a willingness to make viable —a term cautiously preceded by if it is to…
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There was talk of an embrace (…) to build a common solution, followed by serious availability. Ultimately, even a deep disagreement with the Government, particularly in areas like Health, wouldn’t block the possibility of making the State Budget viable, as the budget is more than just two measures.
Rhetoric on Viability to Prevent Legislative Elections
Yesterday, the rhetoric returned to the idea of practically impossible, which PS parliamentary sources describe as apparent. This shift is accompanied by the notion of opportunity and the repeated insistence on setting conditions for viability to avoid Legislative Elections.
The key development in the political narrative is the firm stance that the PS will not support a State Budget, which it fundamentally disagrees with in its entirety.
Parliamentary sources from the PSD now explain that globality refers to the final stage of the process, specifically the global vote on the 2025 State Budget (OE2025).
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This stage is preceded by discussions and negotiations in the specialty, which take place in parliamentary committees. Before that, there is a political assessment followed by a vote on the generality.
Furthermore, Rui Tavares the MP and leader of Livre had already admitted, to the media a possible scenario saying;
A scenario in which the discussion of the Budget in detail is much more open and in which the Budget that comes out of this Parliament in a final global vote is a very different document from what will be delivered by the Government as a Budget proposal.
The alternative scenario is for the Government to reach a budgetary agreement with a partner that has the necessary deputies [the PS]. In this agreement, the Government would have to approve measures proposed by that budgetary partner while rejecting measures from other parties.
Warnings From President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
This approach reflects Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s warnings to avoid a political crisis in October during the general vote and in November during the global vote.
To clarify, PSD parliamentary sources interpreted the PS secretary-general’s comments, despite the typical party rhetoric, as an indication that the PS is open to negotiations.
They acknowledge that it will never fully be a PS State Budget (as Pedro Nuno Santos put it), but they are willing to conduct a more in-depth analysis of the proposals during the general vote, ensuring their viability.
However, the ultimate political decision will come during the final global vote on the State Budget, which Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has already referred to as the moment of truth. He said:
There are promises made by the Government, which are numerous and concern the future, which imply a new Budget (…), there are promises made or already approved, proposed by the opposition, which also imply a Budget (…), when the time comes, there will be good sense to understand that solutions must be found for the Budget to be viable.
The President of the Republic has already stressed that:
A State Budget is extremely important (…). There will be a Budget, in my opinion, because the world, Europe, the RRP, all of this points to there being a Budget.
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa further elaborated that, if for no other reason,
The Government is a minority, so it needs to talk to the opposition. And, on the other hand, because the opposition [the PS] knows that stability is really essential for them. To truly be the Government tomorrow, they need the situation to be stable, because if it is not stable, they are not the Government either.
Emphasis on Stability Amid Global Context
Socialist parliamentary sources explain that this is why José Luís Carneiro, who competed with Pedro Nuno Santos for the party leadership, emphasized the importance of stability. He argued that stability is essential, especially given the current context of wars in Europe and the Middle East.
Additionally, he noted that the country, State, and local authorities face demanding goals. These arguments are ones Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has frequently used. The PS deputy emphasizes the importance of socialists demonstrating a willingness to dialogue, but with clear red lines.
The first red line is to settle the accounts, placing the responsibility on the Government to take the initiative to present the proposals. The Government must also make the first move towards dialogue and political agreement.
The argument coincides with what socialist sources have already told the media:
The party wants to understand what kind of proposals [from the Government] are in the State Budget, what the dynamics of the Budget are (…), understand the leeway, which may exist, to present projects.
